Optimistic Outlook Despite Challenges
The trailer and semi-trailer market experienced a challenging end to 2023, registering a 2,31% decrease in registrations, reaching a total of 14.116 units, according to data from Asfares. While these numbers may seem discouraging at first glance, a deeper analysis reveals a complex context marked by the "tachograph effect" and other variables that influenced market behavior throughout the year.
The Impact of the "Tachograph Effect" on Vehicle Registrations
The entry into force of the obligation to install the second-generation digital tachograph on new trucks on 21 August 2023 triggered unusual registration behaviour. Transporters accelerated registrations of rigid trucks between January and August, while postponing registrations of semi-trailers to the following months, as the latter did not require the tachograph. This phenomenon explains the initial drop in semi-trailer registrations in the first few months, followed by a significant recovery in the last quarter of the year.
Monthly Registration Patterns
Analysis of monthly semi-trailer registrations supports the "tachograph effect" hypothesis. A steady decline was observed from February to August, coinciding with the implementation of the new device. However, subsequent months showed notable growth: September (13,65% more deliveries), October (1,77%), and November (21,83%). Interestingly, December experienced a further drop of 21,99%.
Affected Segments and Market Trends
The Asfares report highlights that the most affected categories were tankers and refrigerated vehicles. While registrations of tanker semi-trailers decreased by 11,5%, refrigerated vehicles experienced a 22% increase in rigid trucks, vans and pickup trucks, but a decrease of 8,4% in semi-trailers.
However, this explanation does not apply uniformly to all segments. Container ships, mainly manufactured as semi-trailers, suffered a decline of around 18%, and tipper ships also experienced a drop of 13,3%.
Positive Trends and Featured Manufacturers
Despite the challenges, a 5% increase in registrations of curtainsiders was observed, consolidating their position as the most in-demand category. Leading manufacturers such as Lecitrailer, Schmitz and Krone remained in the top positions, increasing their market shares by 2,5%, 29,5%, and 2,4% respectively.
Outlook for the Future and Conclusion of the Employers' Association
Despite the challenges of the "tachograph effect," high interest rates, and legislative uncertainty, the employers' association anticipates stability in the coming months, with levels close to those of 2023. It is expected that the gradual decrease in interest rates and future modifications in national and international scales and dimensions will offset low GDP growth, keeping the market active and trending upward in the medium and long term.
In conclusion, although 2023 presented obstacles, the trailer and semi-trailer market faces 2024 with optimism, supported by the sector's ability to adapt to changes and favorable long-term prospects.
